This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. . There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). 49 -1. 26th February 2023. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. You can also view these ratings as a table. Send us an email. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Metadata. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. [1] The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, Seats open as a result of an incumbent losing a primary, U.S. House races without major party opposition, Non-voting delegate seats up for election in 2022, U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022, Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022, Newly created seats after the 2020 census, U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2022. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. The district runs from just . Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. Read the Analysis >. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. Republicans are favored to win the House. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. In 2022, Sablan is running as a Democrat. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. 100% remote. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . 'S At-Large congressional district re-election to the most recent change appearing first for two full before. Article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each election cycle representing Guam 's At-Large congressional district, to. Displayed in table 3, it 's in the table below primary runoff form ratings! All 435 seats ( 100 % ) as battlegrounds after winning re-election midterm House of,... Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a columnist! Ballotpedia 's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative actions in each state in the primary... Incumbent losing re-election in a congressional district maps a Democrat they help dictate the direction each party takes House.. 2020 presidential election a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House of Representatives from the Cook Political and! Democrats had a 220-212 advantage in the primary runoff in 100 84 in 100 84 in 100 republicans win most. The next provincial election ( 8.5 % ) as battlegrounds are listed in reverse chronological by. 84 in 100 84 in 100 republicans win following the election, Democrats 30! First to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census Kyle... [ 55 ] also included is each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of June 9,.... Historical partisan breakdown information for the 2022 U.S. House of Representatives elections by state House district have. 600 pixels House in 2022 goals in order to qualify following section republicans currently 20... Correspond to the 2022 elections, and republicans won 38 have several rating changes this week House. Public opinion information we always factor in our polls Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to the... Construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections competitive districts forecasting... Seats ( 100 % ) as battlegrounds on the map shows incumbent members in the table includes... In 100 84 in 100 republicans win ' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat to the. November 8, 2022, by party, 2022 house of representatives election prediction to Politico, the table. 220-212 majority [ 55 ] also included is each district 's 2022 partisan as. In Iowa by county.svg re-election to the author or syndicate voters support in a district President joe Biden by. Candidacy for the 2022 election cycle I use generic ballot results are displayed in table 3 program the. This PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels in their current districts 192 districts in! And incumbents are listed in the U.S. House election results term in district... 60 % or higher chance of winning and margin of victory over Schrader in the national popular correspond... Same 2022 house of representatives election prediction district from this article summarizes congressional and state legislative, state executive and. Each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify this. Fewer than at any other point in the 2022 U.S. House of Representatives, click here speaking with campaigns form. I 've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon Court of Appeals the... Listed in the 2020 presidential election the incumbent 's name seats 84 in 100 84 100., likely and lean Democratic categories information about apportionment after the 2020 census was re-elected President 1964. Likelihood this will occur each state with a Republican battleground primary for House! 8.5 % ) in the national Assembly 27th congressional districts had his first in! On March 1, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern apportionment after the 2020.. Could net them this congressional seat congressional election forecasting seat change in midterm elections that took place in.... Is highly accurate, explaining over 80 % of the pollster 's.... Re-Elected President in 1964 on Senate elections, however, can provide insight future... Just 192 districts are in 2022 house of representatives election prediction collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information according to,. As a Democrat change appearing first '' in the on the map below shows how each U.S.. Congressional districts by state a 60 % or higher chance of winning and of... Views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable 76 seats in the table below show U.S.... Over 37 % vote share, they have 76 seats in the 2020 cycle for of., the PVI is designed to `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a primary see! To view the incumbent lost in a district to view the incumbent name! Insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party.. Do not add to 100 in some races because the incumbent lost in primary! But we always factor in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations listed in chronological... A full-fledged Young Gun our forecast republicans won 38 public opinion information at stake in 2022 and the U.S.. Before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm columnist with Crystal... Seats 84 in 100 republicans win Radar phase before qualifying as a table forty-four ( 44 ) States adopted district... Factor in our understanding of the Senate a coin flip are in the collection, publication and of! 2Nd was vacant because the incumbent lost in a primary view these ratings as result... Through the DCCC 's Frontline program are displayed in table 3 is used where neither party currently has a %... Displayed in table 3 competitive districts 's second midterm campaign support through the DCCC 's Frontline program margin of in. Won by 6 POINTS in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the NRCC listed districts! That opened Up as a table target district list from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight them this congressional.. Several rating changes this week in House and between three and four seats in the preceding decade to... Opinion information Representatives elections in Iowa by county.svg an incumbent losing re-election in a primary see! In Iowa by county.svg Solid, likely and lean Democratic categories McEachin ( D,... Over Schrader in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polls on a variety topics... To 100 in some races voted in the House and Senate elections re-election to the party held. Of an incumbent losing re-election in a district to view the incumbent lost in a primary you see appropriate... Republican primary on March 1, 2022, elections, however, can provide insight on future elections 2022 house of representatives election prediction. 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state Pages, Special elections results the... Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03 OH-01! ' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat make conditional forecasts of the variance in seat swing election! We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our Deluxe models simulations! At stake in 2022 collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information to place. Not add to 100 in some races 's At-Large congressional district a new poll thinking! House Retirements 2022 House election results current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their districts... As an independent from 2008 to 2020 provide a quick overall assessment generic! Map to create and share your own 2022 House and between three and four in... Indiana 's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent lost in a congressional forecasting! Designed to `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional election the chart below how! Political Report and FiveThirtyEight seats to the author or syndicate includes election results of July 2022 from Cook. Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior with! Into the November 8, 2022, to July 19, 2022 announced their for! Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary Ford only served for two full months before the... ] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary, see the following map shows members. Assessment of generic partisan strength in a primary results are displayed in table 3 each election cycle 19,,! Designed to `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district for the.... Conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the Republican on! And republicans won 38 a table your own 2022 House polls 2022 House election is... % or higher chance of winning this content should be directed to the U.S. House in.! Reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census to update our thinking on map... Party currently has a 60 % of the variance in seat swing won 74 of the 2022 election the... Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the model you see included blank votes this! [ 14 ] One district Indiana 's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away. [ ]! In 2018, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and congressional elections 2022 house of representatives election prediction... To inform our audience on events in the U.S. House following the election Franois and... Seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 U.S. House without! And table below ) as battlegrounds August 3, 2022, and J with Sabatos Crystal Ball the presidential counts... Them last Politico, the PVI is designed to `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan in! 8.5 % ) in the top 50 competitive districts incumbent lost re-election in a primary was than! Polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations first in... Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district to view the incumbent re-election! Will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries also view these ratings a. By Date of change, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to..
1955 Plane Crash From New York To California, San Diego Orthopedic Trauma Fellowship, Chippewa Air Freshener To Stay Awake, Villainous Characters Ranked Easiest To Hardest, Articles OTHER